Module 3: PERT Probabilistic Analysis - Cpm Pert Scurve Training Module03 Variance Aggregator

Understand how to incorporate time uncertainty into project schedules using three-point estimating, variance, and probability analysis to support risk-informed management decisions in irrigation projects.

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Project Variance & Standard Deviation Aggregator

Adjust the individual variances of activities on the critical path to see how they aggregate into the total project uncertainty.

Activity 1 Variance (

\sigma_{1}^2

): 1.00 days²

Activity 2 Variance (

\sigma_{2}^2

): 0.44 days²

Activity 3 Variance (

\sigma_{3}^2

): 0.25 days²

Project Uncertainty

Project Variance (

V_p

)

V_p = 1.00 + 0.44 + 0.25 = 1.69 \text{ days}^2

Project Standard Deviation (

\sigma_p

)

\sigma_p = \sqrt{1.69} = 1.30 \text{ days}

Module 1: Introduction and Rationale - Cpm Pert Scurve Training Module Outcomes Map Module 1: Introduction and Rationale - Cpm Pert Scurve Training Module Project Control Workflow Module 2: CPM Fundamentals and Critical Path Scheduling - Cpm Pert Scurve Training Module02 Network Builder Module 2: CPM Fundamentals and Critical Path Scheduling - Cpm Pert Scurve Training Module02 Forward Pass

Project Variance & Standard Deviation Aggregator

Project Uncertainty

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