Project Control and Monitoring

Learning Objectives

  • Understand the importance of project control and the role of the baseline.
  • Analyze the graphical display of cumulative project progress using S-Curves.
  • Apply Earned Value Management (EVM) parameters to measure project performance.
  • Calculate and interpret cost and schedule performance indices and variances.
  • Forecast final project costs using Estimate at Completion (EAC) and Estimate to Complete (ETC).
  • Evaluate progress measurement methods for determining Earned Value objectively.

Introduction

Project Control and Monitoring ensures that project objectives (Scope, Time, Cost, Quality) are met by comparing actual performance against the baseline plan. Deviations are identified early to implement corrective actions. Without effective control, projects can spiral out of control. Consistent monitoring allows project managers to proactively manage resources, update schedules, and manage stakeholder expectations efficiently.

Key Concepts

S-Curve

A graphical display of cumulative costs, labor hours, or percentage complete plotted against time. The curve is typically flatter at the start and end (due to mobilization and demobilization/punch-list respectively), and steeper in the middle representing peak production. Analyzing the variance between the planned S-Curve and the actual S-Curve is a primary method of project control.

Interactive Simulation

Interact with the S-Curve Control Trainer to observe how schedule efficiency and cost factors alter the Earned Value (EV) and Actual Cost (AC) S-curves relative to the Planned Value (PV) baseline.

S-Curve Control Trainer

Observe how schedule efficiency and cost factors alter the Earned Value (EV) and Actual Cost (AC) S-curves relative to the Planned Value (PV) baseline.

Project Conditions

Progress along the 12-month baseline timeline.

Rate of work completion vs. plan. >100% means ahead of schedule.

Actual cost compared to earned value. >100% means over budget.

Current Status

Planned Value (PV):$600,000
Earned Value (EV):$480,000
Actual Cost (AC):$528,000
Schedule Variance:-120,000
Cost Variance:-48,000

Cumulative Project S-Curves

$0.0M
$0.3M
$0.6M
$0.9M
$1.2M
$1.5M
$1.8M
0
1
2
3
4
5
6
7
8
9
10
11
12
BAC: $1.2M
Planned Value (PV)
Earned Value (EV)
Actual Cost (AC)

Interactive Simulation

Interact with the Earned Value Management (EVM) Simulator below to see how different Planned Value, Earned Value, and Actual Cost parameters affect performance indices and forecasts.

Earned Value Management (EVM) Simulator

Adjust the Planned Value, Earned Value, and Actual Cost to analyze project performance indices (SPI\text{SPI} and CPI\text{CPI}).

Key:
  • PV\text{PV}: Estimated value of planned work
  • EV\text{EV}: Estimated value of completed work
  • AC\text{AC}: Actual cost incurred
Schedule Perf. Index (SPI\text{SPI})
0.90
Behind Schedule
SPI=EVPV\text{SPI} = \frac{\text{EV}}{\text{PV}}
Cost Perf. Index (CPI\text{CPI})
0.82
Over Budget
CPI=EVAC\text{CPI} = \frac{\text{EV}}{\text{AC}}
Schedule Variance (SV\text{SV})-$10,000
SV=EVPV\text{SV} = \text{EV} - \text{PV}
Cost Variance (CV\text{CV})-$20,000
CV=EVAC\text{CV} = \text{EV} - \text{AC}

Value Comparison

$100,000
PV\text{PV}
$90,000
EV\text{EV}
$110,000
AC\text{AC}

Earned Value Management (EVM)

An integrated method for measuring project performance by comparing the planned value, earned value, and actual cost. It answers the question: 'Are we getting value for our money?'

Baseline

The original approved plan (scope, schedule, cost) used as a reference point for monitoring progress.

Earned Value Parameters

Planned Value (PV) or BCWS

Budgeted Cost of Work Scheduled. Represents "what we planned to do" in terms of budgeted cost up to a specific point in time.

Earned Value (EV) or BCWP

Budgeted Cost of Work Performed. Represents "what we actually accomplished" in terms of budgeted cost up to a specific point in time.

Actual Cost (AC) or ACWP

Actual Cost of Work Performed. Represents "what we actually spent" to accomplish the work performed up to a specific point in time.

Performance Indices

Variances and Indices

Performance metrics measure the efficiency and progress of a project relative to the baseline.

  • Variances measure the absolute deviation from the baseline in monetary or schedule terms. A negative variance means the project is over budget or behind schedule.
  • Indices provide a relative measure of efficiency. An index value less than 1.01.0 indicates that the project is performing below baseline efficiency (over budget or behind schedule).

Forecasting

EVM Forecasting

Forecasting uses current Earned Value Management data to mathematically predict future performance and final project outcomes. It acts as an early warning system, allowing management to take corrective action before a minor variance becomes an unrecoverable disaster.

  • Estimate at Completion (EAC): The forecasted final total cost of the project assuming the current cost performance trend continues. If EAC>BACEAC > BAC, the project is projected to overrun its budget. It is typically calculated as the original Budget at Completion (BAC) divided by the Cost Performance Index (CPICPI).
  • Estimate to Complete (ETC): The expected cost required to finish all remaining uncompleted project work. It gives managers a clear target for how much more money they need to secure to finish the job. It is determined by subtracting the money already spent (ACAC) from the newly calculated EACEAC.
  • Variance at Completion (VAC): The estimated final cost variance (BACEACBAC - EAC). A negative VAC indicates an expected budget shortfall.

Interactive Simulation

Use the EVM Forecasting Trainer below to adjust current EVM metrics and instantly calculate forecasted figures (EAC, ETC, VAC) and efficiency targets (TCPI).

EVM Forecasting Trainer

Adjust the current Earned Value metrics to see how they mathematically forecast the final project cost (EAC) and required future efficiency (TCPI).

SPI\text{SPI}
0.80
Behind Schedule
CPI\text{CPI}
0.89
Over Budget

Forecasting Results

Estimate at Completion (EAC\text{EAC})$1,125,000
EAC=BACCPI\text{EAC} = \frac{\text{BAC}}{\text{CPI}}
Estimate to Complete (ETC\text{ETC})$675,000
ETC=EACAC\text{ETC} = \text{EAC} - \text{AC}
Variance at Completion (VAC\text{VAC})-$125,000
VAC=BACEAC\text{VAC} = \text{BAC} - \text{EAC}
To-Complete Perf. Index (TCPI\text{TCPI})1.091
TCPI=BACEVBACAC\text{TCPI} = \frac{\text{BAC} - \text{EV}}{\text{BAC} - \text{AC}}
* Efficiency needed on remaining work to hit original BAC. High value means achieving BAC is unlikely.

Key Performance Indicators (KPIs) and Claims

Non-Financial KPIs

While financial metrics are critical, other non-financial Key Performance Indicators (KPIs) are just as important for project success:

  • Safety KPIs: Metrics such as the Total Recordable Incident Rate (TRIR) are monitored to maintain a safe working environment.
  • Quality KPIs: The number of Non-Conformance Reports (NCRs) issued helps track how closely the work meets the required specifications.

The Claims Process

When a contractor believes they are entitled to extra time or money due to an unforeseen event (e.g., severe weather, owner-directed changes, differing site conditions), they must follow a strict contractual process to secure relief:

  1. Request for Information (RFI): Seek clarification on the issue.
  2. Notice of Delay: Formally notify the owner within the contractually stipulated timeframe (often 7 to 21 days) that an event has occurred that may impact the schedule or budget. Failure to provide timely notice often results in waiving the right to claim.
  3. Time Impact Analysis (TIA): A forward-looking schedule analysis technique that adds the delay event into the baseline schedule to demonstrate the cause and extent of the schedule impact.
  4. Formal Claim: A comprehensive document detailing the contractual basis, the schedule impact (via TIA), and the calculated quantum (monetary value) of the extra costs incurred.

Important Formulas

Variance Analysis

Understanding Variances

Variances indicate the absolute deviation from the baseline in monetary or schedule terms. They provide a quick snapshot of project health.

Cost Variance (CV)

Indicates if the project is under or over budget.

CV=EVACCV = EV - AC

Variables

SymbolDescriptionUnit
CVCVCost Variance (Negative = Over Budget)-
EVEVEarned Value-
ACACActual Cost-

Schedule Variance (SV)

Indicates if the project is ahead or behind schedule.

SV=EVPVSV = EV - PV

Variables

SymbolDescriptionUnit
SVSVSchedule Variance (Negative = Behind Schedule)-
EVEVEarned Value-
PVPVPlanned Value-

Performance Indices

Understanding Indices

Indices indicate the relative efficiency of the project work. They are often more useful than variances because they show the rate of performance, independent of the project's total size.

Cost Performance Index (CPI)

Measures the cost efficiency of the project.

CPI=EVACCPI = \frac{EV}{AC}

Variables

SymbolDescriptionUnit
CPICPICost Performance Index (< 1.0 = Over Budget)-
EVEVEarned Value-
ACACActual Cost-

Schedule Performance Index (SPI)

Measures the schedule efficiency of the project.

SPI=EVPVSPI = \frac{EV}{PV}

Variables

SymbolDescriptionUnit
SPISPISchedule Performance Index (< 1.0 = Behind Schedule)-
EVEVEarned Value-
PVPVPlanned Value-

Forecasting Formulas

Applying Forecasting

Forecasting formulas predict future outcomes based on current performance trends. By mathematically extending the current CPI, project managers can anticipate the final cost.

Estimate at Completion (EAC)

Forecasts the total final cost of the project assuming the current cost performance trend continues.

EAC=BACCPIEAC = \frac{BAC}{CPI}

Variables

SymbolDescriptionUnit
EACEACEstimate at Completion (Forecasted total cost)-
BACBACBudget at Completion (Original total budget)-
CPICPICost Performance Index-

Estimate to Complete (ETC)

Forecasts the expected cost required to finish all remaining project work.

ETC=EACACETC = EAC - AC

Variables

SymbolDescriptionUnit
ETCETCEstimate to Complete (Remaining expected cost)-
EACEACEstimate at Completion-
ACACActual Cost spent to date-

Progress Measurement Methods

Measurement Techniques

Determining the "Earned Value" (EV) requires accurately measuring physical progress on site. Subjective estimates of percent complete destroy EVM accuracy. Several objective rules of thumb are used depending on the type of work:

  • Units Completed: Used for repetitive tasks (e.g., if 500500 of 10001000 bricks are laid, task is 50%50\% complete). This is the most objective and accurate method.
  • Incremental Milestone: Used for tasks with easily identifiable sequential steps (e.g., Formwork complete = 30%30\%, Rebar complete = 60%60\%, Poured = 100%100\%).
  • Start/Finish (e.g., 50/50 Rule): 50%50\% progress is earned when the task starts, and the remaining 50%50\% is earned only upon completion. Used for very short-duration tasks where detailed tracking is not worth the effort.
  • Level of Effort (LOE): Used for management or security tasks where physical progress isn't tangible. EV simply equals the Planned Value (PV) for that time period.

Interactive Simulation

Explore the objective methods for calculating Earned Value using the Progress Measurement Trainer. See how units completed, milestones, and the 50/50 rule avoid subjective estimations.

Progress Measurement Trainer

Explore objective methods for calculating Earned Value (EV) by measuring physical progress. Avoid subjective "percent complete" estimates.

Repetitive Task: Laying 1,000 Bricks

Most objective method. EV is directly proportional to physical pieces installed.

Bricks Laid: 250Total: 1000

Earned Value Calculation

Task Budget (BAC\text{BAC})
$50,000
×\times
Objective Progress
25%
==
Earned Value (EV\text{EV})
$12,500
Key Takeaways
  • Introduction & Concepts: Project control requires measuring actual site performance against an established baseline schedule and budget.
  • Earned Value Parameters: Understanding the difference between what was planned (PV), what was earned (EV), and what was spent (AC) is the foundation of EVM.
  • Performance Indices: SPI and CPI are powerful metrics that immediately indicate if a project is performing above or below 1.0 (the baseline efficiency).
  • Forecasting: EVM data allows project managers to mathematically predict the final project cost (EAC) and remaining cost (ETC) based on current performance trends.
  • Important Formulas: Variances give absolute monetary or time deviations, while indices provide a relative measure of efficiency.
  • Integrated Management: Earned Value Management (EVM) is powerful because it integrates scope, schedule, and cost into a single performance measurement framework.
  • Objective Measurement: Subjective estimates of "percent complete" (e.g., "I feel like we're 80%80\% done") destroy the value of EVM. Progress must be measured objectively using units completed or strict milestones.
  • Early Warning System: EVM indices (CPI and SPI) act as an early warning system. By month 3 of a 12-month project, the cumulative CPI is generally a highly accurate predictor of the final cost.
  • Trend over Point-in-Time: A single negative variance might be an anomaly (e.g., paying for bulk materials early). Management should focus on the trend of the indices over several periods.
  • Action Required: Monitoring without control is just observation. If EVM forecasts an overrun (EAC > BAC), the project manager must implement corrective actions immediately (e.g., changing methods, replacing underperforming subs).