Example
Example 1: Basic Expected Value Calculation
An engineering firm is considering bidding on a small contract. It costs USD 5,000 to prepare the bid. If they win, the profit (excluding bid cost) is USD 40,000. The probability of winning is 30%. Calculate the Expected Value (EV) of the decision to bid.
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Example 2: Intermediate Decision Tree Analysis
A tech company must decide whether to develop a new software product ("Develop") or upgrade an existing one ("Upgrade"). Developing the new product costs USD 100,000. Upgrading costs USD 40,000. If they Develop, there's a 60% chance of high market demand (Revenue: USD 300,000) and a 40% chance of low demand (Revenue: USD 50,000). If they Upgrade, there's a 70% chance of high demand (Revenue: USD 150,000) and a 30% chance of low demand (Revenue: USD 80,000). Determine the best decision using Expected Value.
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Example 3: Advanced Expected Value with Sequential Decisions
A mining company is considering exploring a new site. An initial geological survey costs USD 20,000. There is a 40% chance the survey will be positive and a 60% chance it will be negative. If positive, they can drill (cost: USD 100,000) with an 80% chance of finding ore worth USD 500,000 and a 20% chance of finding nothing. If negative, they abandon the project. Calculate the overall Expected Value of conducting the survey.
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Example 4: Programmed vs. Non-Programmed Decisions
Identify whether the following scenarios represent a programmed or a non-programmed decision in an engineering firm.